Stainless steel peak season is not prosperous, off season is not light late how to go-Zhongrui Metal Material

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Stainless steel peak season is not prosperous, off season is not light late how to go

Release time:

2017-10-26

Since the beginning of this year, the domestic stainless steel market, whether it is the market or the shipment situation, has not shown a clear light season. Not only that, in the traditional steel consumption peak season, the stainless steel market has been falling for more than half a month. The standard peak season is not prosperous. What happened to the stainless steel market this year?

Take the price of 304 cold rolls in Wuxi market as an example. The mainstream price of the market fell from 17000 yuan/ton at the beginning of the year to a low of 12200 yuan/ton in mid-June, a drop of 28.24, and then jumped again in just two and a half months. To 17500 yuan/ton. Prices were up slightly from the beginning of the year and up 34.62 percent from last year. After entering September, the market price fell to 15200 yuan/ton again in half a month, a drop of 13.14. Judging from the overall situation of this year, the price level shows a gradual decline from January to mid-June, a volatile rise in mid-June, and a continuous decline again in early September. However, the shipment situation shows that in the first half of the year, steel traders actively cleared and removed inventory. In the third quarter, the number of goods sold among merchants increased, but the actual market demand did not follow the price to enlarge rapidly.

The peak season is not prosperous, and the off season is not light. Today's stainless steel market more people do not understand. And such a special market has a lot to do with the supply-side reform that the supply is actively promoting. The task of removing production capacity actively promoted by the national supply-side structural reform has accelerated the process of clearing out backward production capacity of steel enterprises, and the market expects that the supply side may continue to decrease, in which case the overall steel market price continues to push up, reaching a stage high by the end of 2016. However, with the fading of environmental speculation heat, gradually return to the fundamentals of supply and demand, the market as a whole from the active replenishment of inventory into the active inventory stage, the market price began to decline, the whole first half of this year, the mainstream price of stainless steel market are following the decline. With the continuous decline in prices, the market once again ushered in replenishment in the second half of the year, coupled with the renewed drive of environmental protection news, the stainless steel market, which was supposed to be the off-season, ushered in a rising market again in June, July and August. And this wave of rising market must be to some extent overdraft market demand. So in September, when the nickel market profit-taking fell sharply, the demand for stainless steel market has not been effectively enlarged, and the overall price has fallen rapidly again.

Later, the domestic stainless steel market as a whole is still optimistic.

First of all, on the macro side, since the supply-side reform began to be implemented, the prices of a variety of commodities, including steel, have bottomed out and the market price trend of major products has shifted from falling to rising. From the perspective of the profit and loss situation of iron and steel enterprises, it has changed from the vast majority of losses to the vast majority of profits. At the same time, the production capacity, quality and environmental protection requirements of steel have changed significantly, especially in the removal of strip steel, which also reflects the determination of the state to supply side reform. At the same time, the national environmental protection supervision work is still continuing, and the upcoming heating season and the seventh plenary session of the 18th CPC Central Committee and the 19th CPC National Congress are about to be held. It is conceivable that the market's enthusiasm for environmental protection speculation will continue for a long time. From this point of view, the upward market of the steel market can still be expected.

Secondly, in terms of profits, according to the monitored profits of domestic mainstream steel mills, the current profit margins of production enterprises have fallen sharply. Taking the mainstream profit situation as an example, the 304 cold roll production profit was 1026.3 yuan/ton at the beginning of the year, and the highest even reached 2192.35 yuan/ton during the year. However, as of September 28, the data obtained was 158.15 yuan/ton, a decrease of 868.15 yuan/ton from the beginning of the year., The decline rate reached 548.94. The rapid decline in the profits of steel mills will certainly attract the attention of production enterprises. It is conceivable that various means of stabilizing the market and increasing income can be seen. Even the situation of joint price protection of major factories in the early stage is not impossible.

But on the other hand, after the continuous upward market in the off-season, the overall market demand for replenishment has been alleviated to a certain extent. At the same time, the rising market price has also put greater pressure on the cost and capital of end customers, which has suppressed demand to a certain extent. Although the current market order receiving situation has improved to a certain extent compared with the previous period, it cannot be ignored that the National Day holiday is approaching and the impact of some terminals borrowing money to hoard goods. Therefore, it is expected that the overall price center of the stainless steel market in the later period will still be dominated by the above-mentioned behavior, and the specific trend may be likely to fluctuate upward, but it does not rule out the possibility of rapid increase under the joint price insurance of major factories.

China Steel Association: steel market is expected to remain stable overall

The strongest sound! Merger and reorganization of the steel industry will become the trend!

China Steel Association: steel market is expected to remain stable overall

The strongest sound! Merger and reorganization of the steel industry will become the trend!

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